How to master dynasty fantasy football market
By Jesse Moeller twitter.com/JMoeller05
The market can be your foe or friend when it comes to dynasty, depending on how you react to the dynasty Market. Move fast, and you can gain a leg up on your competition, moving too slow, and it will put you behind the eight ball. By trusting your process and moving quickly in dynasty, you become a massive winner in the end.
The most significant edge you can gain in dynasty is when you go against the consensus to obtain an advantage where others did not see it as a potential possibility. As the further you go away from it, the greater return you can gain. Along with that comes more inherent risk. Often, the game we play compares to the stock market for good reason. The similarities to the stock market are apparent. That is why you see countless Buy and Sell pieces when browsing Twitter or dynasty football websites. Since the game is year-round, the value on players and picks swings wildly. Make sure you stay up to date to take advantage when you receive a fortunate bounce.
This tweet is one of my favorite graphics I have come across. It helps us see how dynasty is cyclical. As you can see from the graphic above, the easiest way to gain value is to trade for players in the offseason and acquire picks during the season. There is always a risk with it, as the veteran you obtain could struggle, ala Robby Anderson, Kenny Golladay, Mike Davis. The draft picks possess that exact problem as well. Look at N’Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, Rashaad Penny, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Kaderious Toney. There is an inherent risk with every move we make in dynasty, so that line of thinking will only cost you in the long run. We all will have hits and misses in this game. Unfortunately, it will always be a part of it, as we are playing a game based on a game. It simply creates more potential risk, which is an aspect of this game I genuinely enjoy. We are trying to use any advantage to overcome the other managers in your league.
This strategy can be hard to pull off as you reverse what seems the most straightforward way to improve your team. Every team wants productive players in-season and to accumulate draft picks in the offseason. Going this route, you follow a similar strategy as every manager in your league. Going against the grain allows you to have a broader range of outcomes when looking to obtain players or picks when the dynasty community is lower on them. It is an often misunderstood strategy that has a tremendous payoff in dynasty.
Broken down to a micro-level, the contrarian approach while applying this strategy would be investing in players that the community has openly soured on for numerous reasons. In dynasty, a player’s age goes hand in hand with their value. It is the likeliest scenario as a player pushes up against and surpasses the dreaded age apex. Once you move past the age apex in dynasty, a player will never recover the value they previously had, no matter how productive they are. Think of Derrick Henry, Chris Carson, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady, and other productive veterans. The players all had a reduced cost to one reason alone this offseason, their age. Ask any manager that has them rostered, and I would imagine they all are thrilled with the production they have received this year.
This last section might be my favorite. As Drew points out, you can find a market inefficiency and exploit it. For me, that inefficiency was the price of J.K. Dobbins and how Baltimore was a supposed lousy spot for the player to be. Two weeks in, Ty’Son Williams, an undrafted 25-year-old running back, is currently 15th in PPR with the 26th opportunity share and 28th in weighted opportunities, doing this while splitting work with Latavius Murray. I can confidently say Dobbins was going to smash this season. Here is to 2022, my guy.
Back to the topic at hand, this situation is when the community fades a player for a particular reason. Think of D.J. Moore, Josh Jacobs, Courtland Sutton, Amari Cooper, J.K. Dobbins, Odell Beckham, Logan Thomas type players. All have the talent to be one of the best players at their position in fantasy. Yet, the market price does not reflect that in the players’ value for one reason or another. These players are the ones where going against consensus will net you a substantial profit if you are willing to see it through.
Try going against the gain in one of your dynasty leagues this season. At the end of the year, see how the strategy worked for you and make adjustments to your process. It is how we all get better at this game we play. Never be afraid to go against the community and trust in your beliefs. You are the one managing your team, not the community. By doing this, you see your strengths in this game, allowing yourself to improve them for sustained success.
Update: I wanted to mention the late great Mike Tagliere. I did not have the privilege of knowing Mike Tagliere personally, yet I felt the mark he left in our community. Few names transcend the game we play, and Mike was one of them. Go ahead and search #TagsStrong on Twitter and you will see what a wonderful person Mike was, who left a lasting impact on this industry. Mike will be missed and remembered by so many. I wanted to thank you personally for all you gave to helping others strive to achieve a place in this industry. You are gone but never forgotten.