Dynasty sells after Week 1

Sell Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski

By Zach Kurt

There is always a week of overreaction in the first week of the season and as smart fantasy managers, you should take advantage of the overreactions. There are also a lot of panic trades (products of the overreactions) in the first few weeks of the season. PAY ATTENTION TO INJURIES and if someone had Ryan Fitzpatrick as a starting QB in Superflex, then sell high on a mediocre QB. Also, watch for the players dropped on waivers! Paying attention to the overreactions, waiver wire transactions, and injuries allow you to sell high and make a profit from these specific individuals. 

Antonio Brown had an absolutely monster game and has been one of the best to ever play the game. However, I do believe he is the 3rd target in this offense and is just a 1-year rental. Brown is 33 years old, he has a troublesome past and this is likely Brady’s last year. Not a lot of WR’s are fantasy relevant at 34 years old. I just saw Brown get traded for a 1st and a 2nd in dynasty. This is an absolute overpay which is why you can sell high because he is AB. People are buying into the narrative of him being vintage AB. Sell, Sell, Sell!

We have seen the Sam Darnold Robby Anderson connection before and it was not lucrative. Robby was an absolute PPR machine last year. He filled a role on that team that was missing due to CMC’s absence. Now CMC is back, D.J. Moore is the WR1, and Terrace Marshall had double the amount of targets in comparison to Robby’s targets. Robby had one monster 12 point play but besides that one play he put up a goose egg. If you are going to sell Robby do it as fast as you can. He is the #4 option on this offense and that is just not something I want as well as it seemed to work this week..

The leader of the texans backfield has arrived. Mark Ingram had a lot of volume on Sunday. He accumulated  25+ carries as well as a score on the ground. In a crowded backfield, he seemed to get the edge. However, this will more than likely be the only team they beat this year. This is why they had such a run-heavy game script. Ingram may be the “lead back” but all 3 backs had a TD and all had decent involvement. To me this means it is going to be split up every game and Ingram will be used in positive game scripts Like I said above this may be the only team that they have a positive game script against. I would sell as high as you can although for a 31-year-old RB on a very bad team you aren’t likely to get a huge return.

Gronk looked like vintage Gronk against a very bad team this week. However, I don’t believe he is in prime Gronk form. Everyone in fantasy absolutely loved Gronk he was similar to Kelce just more TD-heavy! He is a 1-year asset and is the 4th target on the team. A crowded WR room and a crowded TE room for Gronk screams sell him on nostalgia. This isn’t 2016 as much fun as that would be!

Tyrod Taylor has gotten replaced every season over the past couple of years. It could happen again this year. Now I like Tyrod as a player but there is nothing special about him. Tyrod is a mobile QB that can throw the ball accurately enough to pass as a starter in the NFL. the Texans drafted David Mills and with my projection of the Texans being one of the worse teams in the NFL I believe he will assume the starting role at some point this season. I say that because at some point they will be knocked out of playoff contention and they need to see what they have in mills before they grab a high capital QB in the 2022 draft! Go find the guy that just lost Fitzpatrick and offer him a “Steal” on Tyrod.

Now I don’t expect you to get an absolute bounty for any of these players. I do expect many of these players to lose value over the course of the season. They all have great opportunities to sell on. Don’t forget to pay close attention to those transactions and injuries.. It is a way to take your league by storm and sell high. As always send those trade offers because DYNASTY NEVER RESTS!

3 sleeper WRs for redraft

Tee Higgins is a major sleeper in fantasy

By Jesse Moeller (Twitter: @jmoeller05)

With the NFL season 78 days away, I figured it was time to dive in and find some value plays for the upcoming year. Where I wanted to start my search is at the wide receiver position. It is a position chalked full of talent that you can randomly pick a player and say they are top twenty-four in fantasy or a WR2. Or it at least would seem that way. I wanted to pick one player, each valued as a WR3, WR4, and WR5, who will outperform that ADP this year, and become a flex player or better this season. I will list my preferred options in each range and select a winner for each group. We will be using Fantasy Pros ADP as of June 22nd, 2021.

The WR3 (25-36) candidates: Tee Higgins (25), Chase Claypool (26), Brandon Aiyuk (27), D.J. Chark (29), Courtland Sutton (32), Ja’Marr Chase (33), Robby Anderson (35), Brandin Cooks (36)

My WR3 is Tee Higgins

I have been pounding the table for Higgins this entire offseason, so it should come as no surprise I would take him here. Higgins had a fantastic rookie year that was interrupted by a Joe Burrow injury in week 11. Higgins was having a remarkable season up until that point. While Higgins did not put up similar stats when Burrow was out, his target share jumped up to 24%. Closing out the year Higgins out-snapped and received more targets per game than Boyd.

As we moved into the offseason, Higgins hype went into overdrive. He reached the WR12 rankings in dynasty circles in March as the community was foaming at the mouth, thinking of the possibility of Burrow throwing to Higgins for the next decade. But, instead, the Bengals passed on Sewell and drafted super prospect Ja’Marr Chase Burrow’s partner at LSU. As a result, Higgins value took quite the dive as we are unsure how the pecking order would sort out in Cincy.

Now the concern is how much volume is available in an offense due to the receiving talent the Bengals currently possess in Higgins, Chase, and Boyd. There have been various teams in the last few seasons to support multiple top 24 receiving options. As the best passing attacks in the NFL support numerous players. Here is a list of each team in the last four years to support two top 24 WR.

2020: (4) Seahawks, Vikings, Cowboys, Steelers
2019: (3) Buccaneers, Rams, Cowboys
2018: (5) Falcons, Buccaneers, Steelers, Vikings, Rams
2017: (3) Steelers, Lions, Eagles

You might notice teams showing up multiple times, which makes sense as the best passing attacks allow two and sometimes three wide receivers to be relevant in fantasy. You have little to worry about from Higgins this year, as the Bengals will be amongst the league leaders in pass attempts in 2021. Higgins is an integral part of this offense and will command targets throughout the season. Do not let the name of Chase scare you off of upside Higgins presents in 2021. If you are curious where I stand on the two I will let my tweet below clear it up

The WR4 (37-48) candidates: Will Fuller (39), DeVonta Smith (40), Curtis Samuel (41), Jerry Jeudy (42), Michael Pittman (46), Laviska Shenault (47), Jaylen Waddle (48)

My WR4 is Curtis Samuel

The Washington Football team had a very condensed passing attack in 2020, with Terry Mclaurin, J.D. McKissic, and Logan Thomas accounting for 354 targets out of a possible 573. That’s a whopping 61.7% of the attempts going to three players. The most interesting statistic is how involved McKissic was in the passing game with Alex Smith compared to the other quarterbacks on the roster last year. In the eight games with Smith, Mckissic had a 22.9% Target Share. In the games without Smith, his Target Share dropped to 13.8%! That is a monumental change based on the play of the quarterback.

Enter Curtis Samuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The offense should look drastically different in 2021, with Fitz as the wheel. While Fitzpatrick is not the gunslinger, so many of us believed him to be. Fitzpatrick does not check down to the running back the way Smith did last year. Instead, his skills complement Samuel flawlessly. Fitzpatrick has one of the lower average depth of target during his career in the NFL, where Samuel disrupts a defense. Samuel in space underneath is how to use his talents best. Samuel is the type of guy you want to generate YAC, and those underneath throws create openings allowing Samuel to obliterate defenses.

An often misunderstood part of Samuel’s game is how dynamic of a player he is. In 2019 he was given 27 deep attempts (>20 yards downfield), best for eight in the NFL. Which, to anyone outside Carolina, may come as a severe surprise. Carolina corrected previous mistakes this last year, increased his slot snap share > 50%, gave him 41 rushing attempts, and cut his deep targets in half. Giving a player with his skillset the majority of slot snaps has the same goal as increasing his rushing attempts. Letting Samuel in space, allowing him to use his speed, which is why Samuel could put together the season he did.

The WR5 (49-60) candidates: Corey Davis (49), Antonio Brown (50), Michael Gallup (51), Cole Beasley (52), Darnell Mooney (55), John Brown (58)

My WR5 is Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown is someone I am grabbing everywhere I can, as I expect big things from him this year. However, one of our generation’s most transcendent wide receivers will be catching passes from Tom Brady, AKA The Goat, in 2021. I scratch my head, wondering what I am missing, with almost everyone fading Brown to the later rounds of drafts.

Brown did miss a good chunk of the season last year, but that should not be a reason to fade A.B., as when he was on the field for Tampa, Brown was heavily involved. He trailed only Davante Adams in Hog Rate last season. Hog Rate is a metric designed to tell you how much a player is featured on the field. The simple version is that it is Targets Per Snap. For Brown not playing until week 9, coming in and immediately establishing himself is remarkable considering how the year started. It shows us that Brady truly has eyes for Brown, and I would expect that to lead into the 2021 season.

Brown had a more significant target share than Evans and Godwin in the games he played last year. So I see it as a mess for Evans and Godwin, going six rounds earlier, as Brown will push both for the lead in team targets. Don’t miss out on the best sleeper wide receiver in your draft this season. Grab Brown everywhere you can.

Even outside the top 60, there are some promising dart throws for your fantasy team this season. The names Elijah Moore, Nelson Agholor, John Brown, Parris Campbell, Emmanuel Sanders, and Rondale Moore are ones I expect to outproduce their current ADP. Grab these players late in your draft. You will enjoy having them on your rosters for this year. All of these players are in offenses either needing an alpha or are lacking multiple threats. There is an obvious path for them to come in and be relevant early and often in 2021.

Projecting the prominent Buccaneers WRs stat lines in 2021

By: Jeremy Trottier

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had arguably one of the best receiving cores in the NFL as of late.  They have also added to it this offseason during the draft, taking Jaelon Darden with the 129th pick.  They also re-signed Antonio Brown, and franchise tagged Chris Godwin, bringing their four top receivers back for another season.  

In this article, I will be predicting the stats of the Bucs top three receivers who should all get touches, those being:

  • Mike Evans
  • Chris Godwin
  • Antonio Brown

Each of these receivers brings a different skillset to the team, and should each have pretty varying levels of different receiving stats.  With that said, here are my predictions…

Mike Evans

Statline: 123 receptions on 76 targets (61.8% catch rate), 1208 receiving yards, 10 TDs

Mike Evans had a relatively down year in 2020 by his standards, likely because of all the new weapons brought in.  However, with Tom Brady continuing to age, it is apparent that his arm fell off a little bit last year in terms of the deep ball.  With this in mind, Evans should have a “comeback” year of sorts in 2021, continuing his streak of 1000 yard seasons through his whole career.

The reason Brady factors into this is because Evans tends to run the short-intermediate routes, while Antonio Brown will run the deep slot routes most of the time.  This precise route running from Evans should allow him to be Brady’s favorite target this season, as it will make his job exceptionally easy.

Chris Godwin

Statline: 68 receptions on 89 targets (76.4% catch rate), 895 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Chris Godwin has mostly had the lesser of the two stat lines out of this duo, and I do not think that will change unless Evans has a severe drop off in production.  With that said, he still sees a slight increase from 2020 as he likely will play one more game than last year at the least (played in 12 last season).  

This increase likely will not cut into the other receivers on the team, as like I mentioned this is purely due to an increase in games played not number of targets per game.  At only 25 years old this season though, he should be looking to make an entry for the WR1 conversation on the team.

Since he would be going against the 2nd best CBs in the teams he plays, his coverage would be slightly sparse compared to Evans.  If they can draw coverage off of eachother and try to “pick and roll” per-say, that would give them a huge advantage on the field for sure.  

Antonio Brown

Statline: 60 receptions on 82 targets (73.2% catch rate), 795 receiving yards, 8 TDs

Another player who will benefit from more games played is the addition from last season, Antonio Brown.  My guess is he will likely start 10-12 games of the 17 this season, which is why he has such a drastic improvement in this statline compared to last season.  His primary focus as a receiver is turning YAC and getting to the endzone if he can rip a gap open.

The low-ish receiving yards compared to the other two receivers is due to just lack of volume, sharing between three primary receivers is absolutely difficult to do, even for someone like Tom Brady.  There is only so many receptions that can be given out per game, and the focus of the offense is heavily reliant upon Godwin and Evans, so this deteriorates the touches of everyone else.  

With that said, since he would likely be going up against the CB3 of each team he plays, this would still allow him to produce no doubt.  When the duo ahead of him is getting a lot of the focus, he can get to the seam and rip off long plays.  

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