Buy, Hold, Sell: Elite RB edition

Buy Giants RB Saquon Barkley NOW

By: Zach Kurt

Many people are in Panic mode 2 weeks into the season and I am going to address 3 Rbs drafted as top 12 RBs in most dynasty startups this year. The three backs I am going to highlight are Saquon Barkley, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH), Antiono Gibson (Gibby). These are some high-profile guys who have had a less than stellar start to the 2021 season. As a dynasty owner, what are you supposed to do with these assets? I will tell you!

Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG) BUY!!

This one is the easiest decision of the three for me and it’s not particularly close. Saquon is the best running back in the NFL when healthy. He is a great pure runner of the ball and a pass-catching savant. He can turn any play into a TD and you don’t get that ability from many RB’s in the NFL (CMC, Henry, Dalvin, Saquon). He has been on a slow start this season. The man is coming off an ACL tear.

Let’s get some perspective here. Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in 2011 and in 2012 his first 2 games totaled 25 touches. Saquon in his first 2 games tallied 26 touches. It is okay to start slow as a skill player coming off this injury. If people are worried about him you absolutely should buy him he is the best running back in the NFL when healthy and he is a few weeks from being there. Buy! Buy! Buy!

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB-KCC) Hold

CEH was heavily hyped a lot this offseason with the upgrades to the Chiefs O-line. Through two games in pass-heavy game scripts, CEH has been involved but not what you want for the workhorse back we were expecting him to be. It has been ugly for CEH thus far and despite the game scripts not being in his favor, he hasn’t impressed on any front. I believe that his trade value has taken a gigantic hit in the last two weeks that it is not smart to trade him right now. I have a few shares of CEH and have sent some offers out and the return I have been looking at is Chase Edmonds and Myles Gaskin. He is absolutely not worth selling for that. Wait for him to get a great majority of touches in a positive game script and his price will rocket back up because he is on the Cheifs.

Antonio Gibson (RB-WFT) SELL

Over this offseason, Antonio Gibson may have been the most hyped player in the fantasy community. People have been calling him CMC 2.0, Believing he would get a similar role to CMC. I had a lot of red flags when it came to this claim with Gibby and through a two-week sample, they seem to be coming true. J.D. McKissic was still there and was going to be the 3rd down back, Gibson was in for touchdown regression, and the more touches he saw his efficiency started to drop. All of those things have been happening two weeks in and I am a firm believer that they continue to happen. If you can sell Gibby for Saquon, Chubb, or David Montgomery I would sell Gibson for any of those guys very quickly. 

These first two weeks of NFL action have been peculiar but I believe that some of the evidence we have seen on the field is telling. None of what I have laid out here is a guarantee however sometimes it pays to buy low and sell high. Like I always say, send trade offers because Dynasty Never Rests.

Dynasty sells after Week 1

Sell Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski

By Zach Kurt

There is always a week of overreaction in the first week of the season and as smart fantasy managers, you should take advantage of the overreactions. There are also a lot of panic trades (products of the overreactions) in the first few weeks of the season. PAY ATTENTION TO INJURIES and if someone had Ryan Fitzpatrick as a starting QB in Superflex, then sell high on a mediocre QB. Also, watch for the players dropped on waivers! Paying attention to the overreactions, waiver wire transactions, and injuries allow you to sell high and make a profit from these specific individuals. 

Antonio Brown had an absolutely monster game and has been one of the best to ever play the game. However, I do believe he is the 3rd target in this offense and is just a 1-year rental. Brown is 33 years old, he has a troublesome past and this is likely Brady’s last year. Not a lot of WR’s are fantasy relevant at 34 years old. I just saw Brown get traded for a 1st and a 2nd in dynasty. This is an absolute overpay which is why you can sell high because he is AB. People are buying into the narrative of him being vintage AB. Sell, Sell, Sell!

We have seen the Sam Darnold Robby Anderson connection before and it was not lucrative. Robby was an absolute PPR machine last year. He filled a role on that team that was missing due to CMC’s absence. Now CMC is back, D.J. Moore is the WR1, and Terrace Marshall had double the amount of targets in comparison to Robby’s targets. Robby had one monster 12 point play but besides that one play he put up a goose egg. If you are going to sell Robby do it as fast as you can. He is the #4 option on this offense and that is just not something I want as well as it seemed to work this week..

The leader of the texans backfield has arrived. Mark Ingram had a lot of volume on Sunday. He accumulated  25+ carries as well as a score on the ground. In a crowded backfield, he seemed to get the edge. However, this will more than likely be the only team they beat this year. This is why they had such a run-heavy game script. Ingram may be the “lead back” but all 3 backs had a TD and all had decent involvement. To me this means it is going to be split up every game and Ingram will be used in positive game scripts Like I said above this may be the only team that they have a positive game script against. I would sell as high as you can although for a 31-year-old RB on a very bad team you aren’t likely to get a huge return.

Gronk looked like vintage Gronk against a very bad team this week. However, I don’t believe he is in prime Gronk form. Everyone in fantasy absolutely loved Gronk he was similar to Kelce just more TD-heavy! He is a 1-year asset and is the 4th target on the team. A crowded WR room and a crowded TE room for Gronk screams sell him on nostalgia. This isn’t 2016 as much fun as that would be!

Tyrod Taylor has gotten replaced every season over the past couple of years. It could happen again this year. Now I like Tyrod as a player but there is nothing special about him. Tyrod is a mobile QB that can throw the ball accurately enough to pass as a starter in the NFL. the Texans drafted David Mills and with my projection of the Texans being one of the worse teams in the NFL I believe he will assume the starting role at some point this season. I say that because at some point they will be knocked out of playoff contention and they need to see what they have in mills before they grab a high capital QB in the 2022 draft! Go find the guy that just lost Fitzpatrick and offer him a “Steal” on Tyrod.

Now I don’t expect you to get an absolute bounty for any of these players. I do expect many of these players to lose value over the course of the season. They all have great opportunities to sell on. Don’t forget to pay close attention to those transactions and injuries.. It is a way to take your league by storm and sell high. As always send those trade offers because DYNASTY NEVER RESTS!

Dynasty Fantasy Football: Top 3 Sells

By: Andrew Metcalfe

Time to Cash Out on these Guys

March is always a fun time for Dynasty Fantasy Football.  Rookie pro days are in full swing, free agency frenzy is around the corner and the countdown to the NFL Draft has officially begun.  Many players will find themselves in different situations for the upcoming 2021 season, based on the moves that will be made around the league over the next few months.   The following players that I will suggest as options to trade away have all peaked in value, so I’m looking to move them before their situation changes in a bad way.  

Robert Tonyan, Packers TE

Every season, we see a Top 10 fantasy TE that comes out of nowhere and Robert Tonyan is the latest to break onto the scene by catching 52 passes for 586 Yards and 11 TDs.  That was good enough for a TE4 finish in 2020.  He is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent and I expect the Packers to extend him this off-season, I’m not sold that he will continue to produce at a high level though.

The biggest red flag for Tonyan is his target count.  He ranked 30th among TEs in targets per game (3.7) which is less than Dawson Knox, Albert Okwuegbunam and Gerald Everett.  He was able to compensate for this with insane TD efficiency by both himself and Aaron Rodgers.  His 18.6% receiving TD rate is historic.  Travis Kelce posted his career-high TD rate of 7.6% this past season.  It’s rare to see any receiver above 10%, so I expect major regression from Tonyan in the scoring department.  Rodgers also threw a TD pass on 9.1% of his passes which is a career-high, up from his career average of 6.3%.   Unless both Tonyan and his QB can both repeat their extreme TD rates, he will likely become a streaming TE for fantasy purposes in 2021. 

Van Jefferson, Rams WR

Van Jefferson was a surprise pick when the Rams selected him in the 2nd round (57th overall) of last year’s draft.  He couldn’t participate in the 2020 Combine (injury) and did not post impressive stats during his career at the University of Florida, so he remained under the radar throughout the pre-draft process.  There wasn’t much more excitement surrounding Jefferson during the season either as he went on to only catch 19 passes for 220 yards and 1 TD.  

Jefferson’s value has already seen two bumps this offseason: First, we saw reports that Josh Reynolds would become a free agent, which moves Van up to WR3 on the depth chart.  Second, the Rams’ acquisition of Stafford which is expected to boost the entire offense.  While these are both viable reasons to believe Jefferson will step into a fantasy-relevant role, I’m not excited about his outlook.  The Rams had the 4th highest run rate in 2020 and have been the 5th most run-heavy team over the past three seasons.  Stafford was not brought in the change McVay’s offense into a pass-heavy approach, he was acquired to run it more efficiently than Goff did.  Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods were both extended with multi-year deals last year, so Jefferson is going to be stuck behind those two on a run-first team for the foreseeable future.  I would target any 2nd Round rookie pick to sell Van for, most of the WRs taken in that range will have more upside.  

Chase Edmonds. Cardinals RB

Edmonds began 2021 as the primary pass-catching RB for Kyler Murray and eventually earned more snaps as Kenyan Drake’s health diminished, causing him to become less effective throughout the year. Edmonds only had 3 weeks in which he scored 10+ PPR points without having a TD.  TD-dependent “scat” backs are not reliable for fantasy.    

Edmonds appears to be in prime position to secure the lead RB role, but when AZ had the chance to give it to him in 2019, they preferred to trade for Drake instead. There was another opportunity for them to hand the backfield over to Edmonds for 2020, but the team still felt the need to tag Drake and keep him atop the depth chart.  Based on the previous actions of the Arizona Cardinals, I don’t ever see Edmonds earning the lead role.  I would be looking to sell for RB2 value right now.     

Dynasty Fantasy Football: 3 RBs Under 25 to Sell

Sell James Robinson

By: Andrew Metcalfe

Reliable Running Backs are a major piece to any successful Fantasy roster.  Timing is essential when it comes to buying/selling them in Dynasty, because their shelf-life is so much shorter when compared to other positions.  Most have a 2-4 year window of peak value, then will see a steep drop once the fall-off begins.  Here are three RBs under the age of 25, that I am looking to trade away before they lose a significant portion (if not all) of their fantasy appeal:

James Robinson (22), Jacksonville Jaguars 

I want to make sure that you don’t hear what I’m NOT saying:  I do not think that James Robinson is in jeopardy of losing his starting job next season.  Despite going undrafted, Robinson put up a top 10 RB season in just 14 games.  He was the NFL’s fifth-highest rusher while showing some decent receiving abilities with 49 receptions for 344 yards.  Robinson proved that he has the talent to be an effective NFL running back. 

On the surface, why would anyone want to sell a young RB like that?…it comes down to opportunity share.  Robinson led all players in market share of RB carries overall, inside the 20 and inside the 5.  His 85.2% RB opportunity share (carries + targets) was several points above Mixon, who was second highest at 81.5%.  All other RBs were below 80% including Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook. 

Robinson saw such an extreme opportunity share because of a lack of competition in the backfield.  Both Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead began the season on IR/COVID List.  Chris Thompson was expected to serve as the pass-catching back, but was severely ineffective when on the field before going on IR due to a Week 10 back injury. 

Jacksonville will certainly look to bolster their RB depth this off-season and could specifically bring in a pass-catching specialist to spell Robinson on third downs.  While he should maintain the lead role, I don’t think he will see the same high volume of touches.  If you can get Top 10 RB value, I would be looking to move him.

Myles Gaskin (24), Miami Dolphins

Myles Gaskin was another waiver wire Godsend in 2020, breaking onto the scene after a non-existent rookie season.  Through the first eight weeks, Gaskin was a top 20 RB in PPG.  He suffered a setback after an MCL Sprain in Week 8 put him on IR.  He only played in three more games once he returned but continued to perform well.  In Week 16, we saw a monster primetime showing when he put up 35.9 PPR points against the Las Vegas Raiders, during Fantasy Championship Week. 

Even though Gaskin was a serviceable runner for Miami, I was not impressed by his efficiency metrics. His 1.22 yards created per touch ranked 31st among RBs and his 4.0 true yards per carry (removes runs of 10+ yards) ranked 49th in the league.  I understand that removing a players’ big plays to make an argument is flawed, but Gaskin’s 2.1% Big Run rate (55th ranked RB) tells us that isn’t a big part of his game. 

Miami holds multiple picks throughout each of the first three rounds of the NFL Draft along with the eighth most cap space.  They should be highly active this off-season and RB is expected to be high on their shopping list.  There have been rumors of mutual interest between the Dolphins and Aaron Jones.  We also saw their coaches spending a lot of time with Alabama RB, Najee Harris, at the Senior Bowl.  Head Coach Brian Flores is looking for his lead back, so I would shop Gaskin around before he gets his guy.

Chase Edmonds (24), Arizona Cardinals

There isn’t much hype surrounding Chase Edmonds right now, other than speculation that Kenyan Drake might not return to AZ, which would leave Edmonds in the RB1 slot by default.  He quietly had a top 25 RB season in 2020, finishing with career highs in carries, targets, yards, and TDs.     

While Edmonds appears to be in great position to secure the lead RB role, I’m not sold on him.  Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury had his first opportunity to hand the backfield over to Edmonds in 2019, after David Johnson injured his ankle and was put in the doghouse.  Instead, they opted to trade for Kenyan Drake who came in and immediately took the backfield lead.  In 2020, the Cardinals decided to bring Drake back on a transition tag.  This does not show a lot of confidence in Edmonds ever becoming the head back. 

Edmonds began 2021 as the primary pass-catching RB for Kyler Murray and eventually earned more snaps due to both health issues and the ineffectiveness of Drake.  Even in PPR, there were only 3 games in which Edmonds didn’t need a TD to reach 10+ fantasy points.  I would not want to rely on a TD-dependent scatback for any given week, so I suggest trading him away while it appears Drake will not return. 

Five Third Year Players to Sell in Dynasty

Sell These Players

By: Marcel Boudreau

Introduction

A big part in being a successful dynasty owner, is to capitalize on value while you still have a chance. By a player’s third year, their talent is well known, but their opportunity and trend direction are what needs to be monitored. Some league mates may still be holding on to last year’s production, and ignorant to the fact that an off-season means there will be many moving pieces (free agency), and newcomers (draft). Below is a list of five players that should be considered to sell before they’re faded on their team’s depth chart, and in the fantasy world.

Myles Gaskin

24 years old

Dynasty SF Value = 4th round pick

Dynasty price tag = 2.10-3.06 or two late 3rd round picks

Gaskin is the most clear-cut player to make this list. After finishing as the RB28 in only 10 games, or as the RB12 in PPR fantasy points per game, many fantasy managers may want to buy-in to what he was able to accomplish. Yes, Gaskin overtook both Matt Breida and Jordan Howard, whom of which the Dolphins acquired last off-season. On another note, Ahmed was RB7 in PPR fantasy points per game in the three games he started. Gaskin was drafted as the 20th pick of the seventh round, and Ahmed was an undrafted free agent. Not to take anything away from these two backs, who had great seasons, but neither are great NFL RBs, or capable of carrying a workhorse role, of which the Dolphins showed to use all season last year. Gaskin and Ahmed were able to produce as a representation of this offense, I do not believe the Dolphins were fortunate enough to “hit” on both an undrafted rookie and a late seventh round pick.

So why sell?  The Dolphins currently hold roughly $30 million in cap space (10th most). They also hold 4 draft picks in the top 50. With few holes left to fill on this roster, why not get a significant upgrade at RB? Guys like Aaron Jones (now in negotiation with the Dolphins), Chris Carson, Travis Etienne, and Najee Harris will all be attainable and would be huge upgrades, it simply depends what they want to spend on them. Either find the Aaron Jones owner, and use the hand cuff selling option, or find that league mate who does not pay attention during the offseason and slip in a quick deal before it’s too late!

Drew Lock

23.3 years old

Dynasty SF Value = 3rd round

Dynasty price tag = 2.06-2.12

Drew Lock is not what DEN hoped he would be. The Broncos have been doing everything in their power to replace/challenge him this off season. To begin, Lock was not that great of a college QB, as his best college completion % was 63%…. That is unflattering, and when going back to watch his college film, he failed to do anything successful when being pressured. He needs a clean pocket to be borderline competent. If he does start 16 games this year, it will be his last 16-game season of his career. Get rid of him before his value plummets even more. 

Where did Lock land across QB categories?

  • 35th in completion % (57.3%)
  • 22nd in yards/game (225.6)
  • T-1st in Interceptions (15) … while only playing 13 games.
  • 29th QBR (48.8)
  • 32nd in QB rating (75.4)

His per game average stats have decreased from 2019 to 2020… He will not complete the “Josh Allen transformation”, which was generational. It’s time to give up on Lock before your league mates do. Find the QB desperate manager in your fantasy league and cash in.

David Montgomery

23.7 years old

Dynasty SF Value = 1.12-2.04

Dynasty price tag = 1.06-1.08

Montgomery finished the season as the PPR-scoring RB4 (STD-scoring RB6) while missing 1 game. This was, and forever will be, by far his best fantasy finish. Montgomery thrives on opportunity, which he had plenty of when Tarik Cohen left the season with an ACL injury in week 3. Tarik Cohen was extended by the bears this season to become the 10th highest paid running back in the NFL… yes, you read that correctly. Not that the money necessarily dictates who gets the ball, and Montgomery will continue to be the first and second down back, but when you a pay a pass-catching, third down specialist, you are going to use them in those situations, which decreases Montgomery’s overall opportunity. What do the numbers say?

Montgomery with Cohen (20 games):

  • 14.25 carries/game
  • 2.2 targets/game
  • 66.45 scrimmage yards/game
  • 0.4 TDs/game

Montgomery without Cohen (11 games)

  • 18.5 carries/game
  • 5.4 targets/game
  • 114 scrimmage yards/game
  • 0.82 TDs/game

This is not an anti-Montgomery article; this is a capitalize on value opportunity. He is built to withstand a heavy workload, but he is: 

  • in the 49th percentile for speed
  • in the 10th percentile for burst
  • was 52nd in breakaway run rate (with 4th most carries), 
  • 30th in yards/touch (5th in opportunity)

Montgomery is not a bad running back by any means, and really capitalized on one of the best RB schedules in history of fantasy, but with Cohen coming back, cutting into Montgomery’s workload, he will revert back to a bottom end RB2 with a moderate floor and small ceiling. My recommendation would be to use him in a package to upgrade at running back, or if you’re lucky enough to swap him 1 for 1 for a better RB, or a younger, stud WR (if that is what your team needs)

Marquise Brown

23.7 years old

Dynasty SF Value = 2.06

Dynasty price tag = 1.11-2.04

He goes by “Hollywood”, and yes that was probably a great name for him growing up, when he dominated his peers, but now that he’s in the big leagues, he’s not the show anymore. He is not an NFL team WR1, and there is just not big enough pie to go around in Baltimore. His target share did increase from 16% to 24.6%, but that was only enough to give him 29 more targets to give him 100 on the season in 2020. Lamar Jackson also came back to earth after his MVP season, which led to a similar passing attempt pace, but less TDs, more INTs, and slightly less yards per game. 

Why sell Marquise Brown?

  • He is tied to a low volume passing offense for 2 more years, that unlike Tennessee, is not hyper-efficient when it does come to passing. 
  • Increasing rumors that Baltimore will add a stud WR in draft or in free agency, who will challenge for targets on top of Mark Andrews demanding roughly 95 targets a year. 
  • His catch rate dropped 6% from 2019 to 2020.
  • Ranks 96th in contested catch rate, and 78th in true catch rate

Brown may have finished as the WR36, but I believe it’s time to cash out, before his value drops even further. He will be a great NFL WR2, but we may have just seen his best season in term of fantasy output, at least while he’s a Raven. Once sold, a few slaps to the face may occur, as he will have his big games, but they will be far and few between, as he and this passing offense, is so inconsistent, that he will hurt your team more than help it when in a starting lineup.

Dwayne Haskins

23.8 years old

Dynasty SF Value = 4th round pick

Dynasty price tag = 3rd round pick

Dwayne Haskins was both a one-year wonder in college, and in fantasy. Many people believe that Haskins still has the opportunity to follow in Roethlisberger footsteps and take center of the Steelers’ QB job. Why was Haskins so good in his 2018/19 season with Ohio State? He had multiple NFL talents: Terry McLaurin (WR), J.K Dobbins (RB), Parris Campbell (WR), Austin Mack (WR), Mike Weber (RB), K.J Hill (WR). Five NFL skill position players on a college team is enough to make any college QB great, especially when in a great football program. 

If he takes reigns of the Steelers, he will have Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, and potentially a stud RB, but he is now in the NFL, where throwing windows are smaller, and processing speeds must be faster. A lot of people blamed Washington’s offensive line to give an excuse to hold onto hope for Haskins, but playerprofiler.com ranked Haskin’s protection rate 4th best among NFL QBs in 2020. 

If we put all the numbers together, Haskins played just over 6 games of

Football in 2020 and had a pace of 39.2 attempts per game for only 234 yards, 0.81TDs, 1.14INTs per game. He also only accumulated 46 rushing yards on 20 rush attempts, with 6 fumbles (3 lost), and 1 TD on the ground. Other cons:

  • 37th in deep ball completion %
  • 38th in catchable pass rate
  • 37th in clean pocket completion %
  • 36th in accuracy rating

What about pros?

  • 17th in redzone completion %

It’s simple, Haskins is not a good passer, overrated runner, and has struggled with off-field issues. A perfect recipe for an early exit out of the league. If there is any time to sell him, it is now. First target the Ben Roethlisberger owner, again using a handcuff selling point approach to convince this owner to monopolize the Steelers QB situation. Haskins is hanging on to his 1st round NFL draft pick value, and a portion of the fantasy world is doing the same.

Conclusion

When brainstorming to do this article, the first name that came to mind was Mecole Hardman. He has been a circulating “sell” name in the fantasy community since the tail-end of the NFL season and playoffs, but I believe Hardman is the biggest hold in fantasy at the moment. Third-year in the NFL is a big “make it, or break it” year, as after this season, players typically only have one season left on their rookie deal, and their respective teams will begin the process of fading and replacing them in the depth chart. The NFL is a business, just because they used value in the draft to acquire these players, does not mean they are loyal to the end of their contract.

Dynasty Quarterbacks to Sell Away

Which QB Needs to Sell High on?

By: Joe Mason @josephmason94

Matthew Stafford (DET)

On January 31st, 2021 Stafford was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams gave up Jared Goff along with two future first-round picks and a third-round pick. Stafford will be joining arguably the best supporting cast he has ever had in his twelve-year career. But is it time to sell high on the hype of his new landing spot?

Since his breakout year in 2011 where he threw for 5000 yards and 41 passing touchdowns, Stafford has only thrown more than 30 passing touchdowns once. He just turned 33 this month, and has two years left on his current contract.

Stafford is as tough as them come. In 2020 he apparently played the entire year with some type on injury, but what if he is always hurt? Are we ever getting Matt Stafford at 100%? He is a sell for me because I don’t believe we will ever get a 16-game season with him staying healthy.

I would be comfortable parting with Stafford for a first-round pick plus. Something along the lines of a mid to late first and Courtland Sutton. You might be able to get more for him and I’ve seen dynasty managers all in on Stafford to the Rams.  It never hurts to hear what someone has to offer after putting a player on the trade block.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I’ll admit this one is a bold take, but hear me out. Lamar Jackson is only 24, was the MVP of the league in 2019, and has put together back-to-back QB1 seasons as the leader of the Baltimore Ravens. What’s not to love right?

My stance with Lamar is you need to treat him as a QB/RB hybrid due to the amount of hits he takes from his rushing volume. Since Jackson entered the league in 2018, only 24 running backs have more rushing attempts than he does. His 482 rush attempts support low-end RB2 numbers.

I don’t know about you, but I personally don’t want my most valuable dynasty asset taking 10-15 hits a game. In the long run the injury risk may not be worth the reward.

Now this rushing volume is what makes Lamar an elite QB option at the position. I anticipate getting two to three more top years out of Lamar, but if he ever loses efficiently on the ground, what would happen? If you take away his rushing stats, Lamar would have finished as the QB21 in 2020 but still would have been the QB5 in his MVP 2019 season. He can still put up great numbers through the air, but you lose out on his safe rushing floor if he ever loses that juice.

Depending on the status of your team, what could you get for a guy like Lamar Jackson? If you are a contender, I would not sell him and ride the top 10 projection for at least the next two years. If you are unsure or are in a rebuild, you can fetch at least three first round picks for Lamar Jackson in a superflex league.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

The great Aaron Rodgers has found himself on the sell list. Since he came into the league and took over for Brett Farve, Rodgers has been an absolute stud. Unfortunately, no one can play forever, not even Brett Farve. So, when are the wheels going to fall off the tracks for Rodgers?

After a disappointing 2019, many analysts thought Rodgers may have hit the first stages of his decline. He was very inconsistent in 2019 but much of it was due to new coach Matt LeFleur and the new run first play calling. After all that, Rodgers bounced back with an impressive QB2 finish and he finished with more TD passes than the Packers had punts.

But when will Rodgers decline begin? I am hearing around the fantasy community that most people think Rodgers has one to two elite years left. When I sell a player in dynasty, I always want to make sure I am at least one year ahead of the decline. Once the decline has started, your return value only gets worse.

Is there another opportunity to sell Rodgers for what his value is now? I see this as his ceiling. Sure, Tom Brady has played into his mid-40s but that is an outlier. Rodgers can be sold for the likes of two first round draft picks or an up-and-coming QB and a first. The worst thing you could do is wait until its too late.

Dynasty Buys/Sells/Holds For Each NFC West Team

Dynasty buys and dynasty sells in the NFC West

By: Austin Ebersole

Can you hear her? The fat lady is singing, and that means that the NFL off-season is here. In the next couple of months, I believe that we are going to witness one of the wildest off-seasons ever considering that two starting quarterbacks have already been traded for one another. From Adam Schefter taking the over on 18 of the 32 teams having a new starting QB for next season to the salary cap not being as high as it normally would be, things are going to be very interesting to say the least. With that, this makes being a dynasty football player a little extra challenging this year with trying to predict which players to buy, sell, and hold with all of the unknown variables this off-season brings. For now though, I would like to dive into one of the best divisions in the NFL, the NFC West, and what some of it’s teams and players have to offer. 

1st- Seattle Seahawks (2020 Record: 12-4) 

Is it me, or did it feel like the Seahawks had to work extremely hard to get to 12 wins? I feel like their 5-0 start was years ago, but we shouldn’t be surprised that Russell Wilson was able to get this team the division crown. Speaking of Russ, he may be a player I would be looking to sell. From weeks 1 to 5 last year, he was arguably the league’s most valuable player and his fantasy football owners were loving it. 

However, in his last 10 games including the playoffs, he only threw for over 250 yards twice and threw more than 2 TDs in one of those games which happened to be against a poor Jets secondary. Now I love Wilson the player, but as reported by Joe Fann, Pete Carroll is on record for saying that the Seahawks “have to run the ball better, not even better, we have to run it more.” If there’s anything to see here, it’s that the Seahawks will let Russ cook when they need him to, but moving forward they are going to be running the ball much more often. I don’t suggest that you undersell him by any means, but now may be the best time to sell him for peak value. 

Seahawks to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now

Buy: WR – DK Metcalf – 23 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 

Sell: QB – Russell Wilson – 32 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Hold: RB – Chris Carson – 26 y/o & Unrestricted Free Agent 

2nd- Los Angeles Rams (2020 Record: 10-6)

Rocking the NFLs best overall team defense by giving up only 18.5 points per game, it’s easy to see why this team clinched a playoff berth and beat the Seahawks on Wild Card weekend. It’s also exciting to know that Matthew Stafford will be chucking the ball around for them next season, but there’s one player in particular that tickles my feathers moving forward. Enter Cam Akers, and the opportunity that he has to lead this team in rushing for the next couple of seasons. 

Since 2017, the Rams have finished as the 1st (‘17), 2nd (‘18), 11th (‘19), and 22nd (‘20) highest scoring offenses in the NFL. Seeing their scoring drop every year is why they felt the need to upgrade at QB, but I want to point out that in those first two seasons, McVay really leaned on Todd Gurley to carry the team offensively. In those 2 seasons, Gurley was RB1 and RB3 in PPR leagues. Knowing that his teams best two scoring seasons were shouldered by his former RB, I fully expect McVay to call Akers number quite often moving forward as shown by his 21+ carries in 3 of his final 4 games to close out the regular season. I know that Akers is on everyone’s radar, but now would be the time to get him before he completely blows up in 2021. 

Rams to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now

Buy: RB – Cam Akers – 22 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Sell: RB – Darrell Henderson – 24 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 Hold: WR – Robert Woods – 29 y/o & Under Contract through 2025 

3rd- Arizona Cardinals (2020 Record: 8-8) 

When I look at the Cardinals and what they did in 2020, I’m impressed but also not surprised that they just missed out on making the playoffs. They were top 10 in red zone offense, 6th in total offensive yards, and 6th in rushing attempts. However, down the stretch, they failed to overcome divisional games against the Rams and 49ers where they were held to under 350 yards in both games. 

One of the biggest reasons for the Cardinals slip up at the end of the season was their lack of running game. Kenyan Drake was unable to get anything going, and only totalled 187 yards on 61 carries over the final 4 games. With a yards per carry average just slightly over 3 yards, Drake was unable to get things going especially after Kyler Murray went down with his own ankle injury in a must win game week 17 against the Rams. Knowing that Drake is an unrestricted free agent, I don’t expect the Cardinals to feel the

need to bring him back. I know that Drake is going to be a tough sell, but I would be looking for a team that is desperate for some RB depth and try to get what I could for him before the Cardinals give the keys to Edmonds or a rookie that they select in this year’s draft. 

Cardinals to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now

Buy: RB – Chase Edmonds – 25 y/o & Under Contract through 2021 Sell: RB – Kenyan Drake – 27 y/o & Unrestricted Free Agent 

Hold: WR – Christian Kirk – 24 y/o & Under Contract through 2021 

4th- San Francisco 49ers (2020 Record: 6-10) 

From playing in the Super Bowl last year to finishing in last place within the division in 2020, the 49ers are an interesting team to look into. There’s tons of rumblings about the Niners being in the market for a new QB, so I expect them to have someone new under center going into next season. Known for their high octane rushing attack under HC Kyle Shanahan, one would be surprised to see that the Niners actually finished 16th in passing attempts last season. Those who have Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk should be thrilled to hear this. 

I find myself to be very excited about this offense moving forward, and whoever ends up playing QB for this team should be on your dynasty radar. For now though, Deebo Samuel is the guy to target at this time. Aiyuk is the new fancy toy and a fun sell candidate with value, Kittle is a top 2 TE, but Deebo is the one flying under the radar a bit after an injury plagued season. In his last 10 games of the ‘19 campaign, Deebo averaged 15 ppg and was also involved in the running game. With Shanahan operating a balanced attack (12th in team passing yards & 15th in team rushing yards in ‘20), there’s plenty of opportunity for all 3 of these dynamic players to eat moving forward. 

49ers to Buy, Sell, and Hold for now

Buy: WR – Deebo Samuel – 25 y/o & Under Contract through 2022 Sell: WR – Brandon Aiyuk – 23 y/o & Under Contract through 2023 

Hold: TE – George Kittle – 27 y/o & Under Contract through 2025

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